Whopping fuel prices

The war has affected the logistics and freight industry both directly and indirectly. One of them is the rise in fuel prices, which has been felt by every driver in recent weeks. Fuel prices have now reached unprecedented heights. In America, for example, this increase was last seen more than a decade ago. This inevitably affects the costs for carriers, which in turn raises the price of the service. For example, according to Freightos, global air freight rates from Asia and Europe have risen by about 80% since the end of February, reaching $ 11.86 per kilogram. Higher shipping costs are likely to affect not only carriers but also consumers. Market comparisons are already showing significant price increases for commodities such as aluminium, wheat and exotic fruits.

Longer routes

More than 2,500 flights from the United States used Russian airspace in January, according to aviation data company Cirium. However, at present, due to security, sanctions and political stance, many carriers no longer deliver goods to Russia and avoid including its territory in their route plans. Due to military threats, Ukraine and Moldova have also become countries with a curve in both land and air transport. This means that companies in the sector need to think about alternatives to travel around certain countries, thus extending flight times and inevitably increasing fuel consumption. Due to the difficulties caused, several airlines have cancelled flights to some Asian countries. Such a step has been taken, for example, by an industry giant such as Finnair, which has decided to cancel passenger and cargo flights to Seoul, Shanghai and Guangzhou, as well as Hong Kong indefinitely.

Lack of capacity and congestion

The state of war in Ukraine has also affected freight transport capacity, which had already fallen sharply during the pandemic due to growing demand for goods, and is now being further eroded. Why? One of the reasons is the aforementioned sanctions against Russia. As a result, Russian cargo planes have been suspended. One of the most significant losses is the banning of Russia’s largest cargo air operator, the Volga-Dnepr, in the West. The Volga-Dnepr operates a fleet of particularly large cargo ships with ramps that can accommodate unusual types of cargo, such as metro wagons, as well as large general cargo shipments. Its subsidiary AirBridgeCargo has 17 Boeing 747 jumbo jets and 777 other cargo aircraft that have been banned from operating in almost 30 countries since the sanctions were imposed. Such bans have had a significant impact on the capacity of cargo aircraft, which is also contributing to the rise in air freight rates.

Congestion at borders and ports

Sanctions against Russia are also not helping the already growing congestion at the border and in major ports. As a result, all shipments of goods entering and leaving the country are subject to special scrutiny at the border to ensure that all sanctions imposed on the country are complied with. This, in turn, indirectly affects an already disrupted supply chain, creating congestion and making it even slower than before.

The air and land transport sectors are not the only ones indirectly affected by the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also damaging world shipping, which accounts for 80% of world trade. Many Russian ships are currently stranded in the world’s oceans and seas, unable to deliver and receive cargo because they are barred from calling at ports in the Americas, England, Canada and many European countries. In addition, the crew on board has to deal with the reluctance of foreign seafarers to help in the event of a shortage of petrol. In recent weeks, the media has repeatedly published videos showing footage of the Russian ship’s crew crying for help, which has been unsuccessful.

Security risk

The war in Ukraine has also increased the security risks for logistics and freight workers. Although most logistics companies have stopped delivering goods to Russia and Ukraine, including Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, some 140 merchant ships from other countries are currently trapped in Ukrainian ports, risking being left without food or drinking water. There have been several reports in the media about the shooting of ships and the death of crew members. For example, on March 3, an Estonian-owned cargo ship with a crew of six, including two representatives of Russia and four representatives of Ukraine, sank off the port of Odessa. Three other merchant ships were sunk in the Black Sea; one of these attacks killed a Bangladeshi crew member. Undoubtedly, the security risk in the shipping industry is now higher than ever, and events are pushing up insurance prices, urging carriers to impose a ‘war risk surcharge’ and puts people in the shipping industry in fear for their lives.

All the above factors lead to the same conclusion: no matter how much we want to send Russian freight and logistics companies to hell because of their political position, we must understand that their absence from the market makes it difficult for the entire industry to function effectively. So let us hope for an early end to the war and a faster recovery of the industry, which will benefit everyone.

Author: Roland Peterson, logistics expert

Image: www.pexels.com

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The forwarding sector said the airspace restrictions imposed by Russia, European states, Canada, the UK and in North America were forcing airlines to cancel and adjust services.

“Adjustments to flight schedules are unavoidable and increased transit times must be expected. As a result, we also expect a financial impact on airfreight rates,” warned Copenhagen-headquartered forwarder DSV. “We are not able to provide an exact estimate of the impact at this stage.”

It added: “Due to ongoing developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, several air carriers have stopped using Russian airspace. This will have a direct effect on air freight services in the coming period.

“DSV is in close dialogue with our carriers to find alternative routings to ensure we provide the best possible service for our customers.”

Kuehne+Nagel warned: “Due to the closure of the air corridors over Russia and Ukraine and the mentioned sanctions, we foresee capacity restrictions and, as a consequence, longer lead times.”

Scan Global Logistics (SGL) said that fuel prices will contribute to higher rates.

The forwarder pointed out that one of the most affected airlines will be Russian carrier AirBridgeCargo, which is blocked from European and North American airspace, two of its biggest markets.

“Overall we expect the current situation will trigger an immediate capacity constraint across transport modes, as well as pressure on freight rate levels, including oil price increases.”

SGL said that many airlines have already initiated to suspend a number of flights and design alternative routes, leading to extended flight time and increased fuel cost.

“Russian freighter carriers Airbridge and Volga are significantly impacted. They have cancelled the majority of flights to/from Asia, with this having a significant overall capacity impact. Asian airlines are not banned from Russian airspace, however, note, we also see Asian-based carriers cancelling flights.”

Singapore Airlines, Swiss, Japan Airlines, FedEx, and UPS have suspended direct flights to/from Russia, SGL said.

Flexport said its research showed that average flight times on six key trade routes from Asia to Northern Europe have increased by 3.4% (range 0.6% to 6.9%) in the five days to February 28 compared to the December 1 through February 22 period.

“The most significant impact is the need for rerouting around the conflict zone, extending transit times, and increased carbon emissions,” Flexport said.

“Some flights between Asia and Northern Europe will need to be rerouted via new southerly routings over Saudi Arabia, amid restrictions linked to Iran, Syria, and Yemen.”

The company added: “It is worth noting that many flights from China and the northern part of Southeast Asia as well as South Korea and Japan typically travel north of the affected region.”

The forwarder pointed out that Antonov’s fleet of freighters – mainly used for heavylift operations – are also affected.

It said that all but five of its freighters were in Ukraine in the days before the start of the conflict.

The remaining five, all AN-124 class with 150 tons capacity each, landed in Europe or the US in the days before.

The forwarder added that several lease firms have reportedly confirmed they will end their contracts with Russian airlines.

The 43 jets of the Volga-Dnepr Group, which includes AirBridgeCargo, features 27 Boeing and 11 Antonov jets. For Aeroflot, 82% of its fleet are Airbus or Boeing planes.

Sanctions could also hit the provision of aircraft parts making maintenance operations difficult.

Despite this, AirBridgeCargo has continued flying since the start of March with more than 15 flights completed, according to FlightRadar24. Destinations include Shanghai, Beijing, Hong Kong, Dubai, Shenzhen, Seoul and Bahrain.

However, Flexport said the loss of Russian cargo capacity will have less of an impact on the overall market than the extended transit times.

“The impact on global airfreight may be minimal given both airlines each represented less than 0.5% of global airfreight carried in 2019,” Flexport said.

Source: www.aircargo.com

Image: www.aircargo.com

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Despite, and partly because of, ongoing turbulence, air cargo keeps going strong. The industry flew through 2021 with an 18.7% increase in traffic over 2020 and 6.9% higher than in 2019. According to IATA, growth was well ahead of the rise in global trade.

2022 has continued in this vein and predictions are for more of the same at least for the first half of the year. IATA conducted a survey of airline chief financial officers and heads of cargo in December and January, who reported improved passenger and cargo volumes and expressed optimism that cargo yields would remain at lofty heights.

The air cargo industry is soaring on strong fundamentals. Inventory-to-sales ratios remain at low levels, necessitating ongoing re-stocking, with strong impetus from economic growth and rising glocargobal trade. In addition, the congestion that has plagued ocean cargo over the past year is not expected to abate significantly in the near term, with some voices predicting this to last through 2022, which promises elevated need for airfreight.

This spells continuing pressure on capacity, even though passenger airlines are in recovery mode. Aviation intelligence firm IBA predicts capacity of US and European low-cost airlines to exceed pre-Covid levels this year and transatlantic passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels. However, Asia Pacific carriers continue to limp, with some not expected to reach half of their 2019 capacity this year.

[ED: On top of this is the invasion of Ukraine, which has severely limited AirBridgeCargo’s and Volga-Dnepr’s capacity while other airlines are scrambling to maintain services with extended routings to avoid Russian or European airspace.]

The experience with the Omicron variant was a powerful illustration how volatile the situation remains. Stringent Covid-related restrictions have severely hobbled Cathay Pacific’s longhaul freighter operations for months and Lufthansa Cargo had to embargo flows through its Frankfurt hub in late January after an Omicron outbreak decimated ground staff there.

The inevitable hunt for capacity is keeping rates in the stratosphere, and the trajectory of the oil price is adding fuel to the fire. Shippers are bracing themselves for more squeeze on their wallets. For the red-hot trucking industry, which has shown similar capacity pressures as airfreight, a recent survey reported that 97% of shippers expected to increase their freight procurement budget this year, more than half anticipating increases of 25% or more.

Forwarders are responding to the situation with moves to tie up more dedicated lift, from large players like Flexport to mid-sized companies like cargo-partner.

The scramble for capacity will go on. Those that have automated processes will find the going somewhat less strenuous.

Source: www.aircargo.com

Image: www.pixybay.com

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Below are four charts showing where a potential escalation of tensions could be felt across global markets:

Safe havens
Inflation at multi-decade highs and impending interest rate rises have made for a bad month for bond markets, but an outright Russia-Ukraine conflict could change that.

Two-year U.S. Treasury yields have seen the biggest monthly jump since 2016 and 10-year rates appeared headed for the key 2% level. In Germany, 10-year yields rose above 0% for the first time since 2019.

A major risk event usually sees investors rushing back to bonds, which represent the safest assets on planet and this time may not be different, even if a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks further fanning oil prices — and therefore inflation.

“Clearly if the Ukraine story was to go wrong there would be quite a significant bid for Treasuries, and this notion of the 10-year getting to 2% would be put on hold,” said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research, Americas at ING.

Other safe-havens include gold, already at two-month peaks as well as the yen.

Grains and wheat
Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and add further fuel to food inflation at a time when its affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Four major exporters – Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania – ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions.

Ukraine is projected to be the world’s third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.

“Geopolitical risks have risen in recent months in the Black Sea region, which could influence wheat prices ahead,” said Dominic Schnider, strategist at UBS.

Natural gas and oil
Energy markets are likely to be hit if tensions turn into conflict. Europe relies on Russia for around 35% of its natural gas, mostly coming through pipelines which cross Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream 1 going directly to Germany, and others through Ukraine.

In 2020 volumes of gas from Russia to Europe fell after lockdowns suppressed demand and did not recover fully last year when consumption surged, helping to send prices to record highs.

As part of possible sanctions in the case Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany has said it could halt https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-signals-it-could-halt-gas-pipeline-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-18 the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia that was expected to increase gas imports to the bloc but also underlines Europe’s energy dependence on Moscow.

SEB commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said markets would see natural gas exports from Russia to Western Europe likely significantly reduced both through Ukraine and Belarus in the event of sanctions and gas prices revisit Q4 levels.

Oil markets could also be affected. JPMorgan said the tensions risked a “material spike” in oil prices and noted that a rise to $150 a barrel would reduce global GDP growth to just 0.9% annualized in the first half of the year, while more than doubling inflation to 7.2%.

Regional dollar bonds and currencies
Russian and Ukrainian assets will be at the forefront of any markets fallout from potential military action.

Both countries’ dollar bonds have underperformed their peers in recent months as investors trimmed exposure amid escalating tensions between Washington and its allies and Moscow.

Ukraine’s fixed income markets are chiefly the remit of emerging market investors, while Russia’s overall standing on capital markets has shrunk in recent years amid sanctions and geopolitical tensions, somewhat cushioning any threat of contagion through those channels.

However, Russia’s rouble and Ukraine’s hryvnia have also suffered, making them the worst performing currencies in the emerging markets universe so far this year.

Geopolitics on the Ukraine-Russian border presented “substantial uncertainties” to foreign currency markets, said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

“The events of late 2014 remind us of the liquidity gaps and U.S. dollar hoarding that led to a substantial drop in the rouble at that time,” said Turner.

(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Sujata Rao, Nigel Hunt and Susanna Twidale; Writing by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alison Williams)

Source: www.marinelink.com

Image: www.pixabay.com

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