Whopping fuel prices

The war has affected the logistics and freight industry both directly and indirectly. One of them is the rise in fuel prices, which has been felt by every driver in recent weeks. Fuel prices have now reached unprecedented heights. In America, for example, this increase was last seen more than a decade ago. This inevitably affects the costs for carriers, which in turn raises the price of the service. For example, according to Freightos, global air freight rates from Asia and Europe have risen by about 80% since the end of February, reaching $ 11.86 per kilogram. Higher shipping costs are likely to affect not only carriers but also consumers. Market comparisons are already showing significant price increases for commodities such as aluminium, wheat and exotic fruits.

Longer routes

More than 2,500 flights from the United States used Russian airspace in January, according to aviation data company Cirium. However, at present, due to security, sanctions and political stance, many carriers no longer deliver goods to Russia and avoid including its territory in their route plans. Due to military threats, Ukraine and Moldova have also become countries with a curve in both land and air transport. This means that companies in the sector need to think about alternatives to travel around certain countries, thus extending flight times and inevitably increasing fuel consumption. Due to the difficulties caused, several airlines have cancelled flights to some Asian countries. Such a step has been taken, for example, by an industry giant such as Finnair, which has decided to cancel passenger and cargo flights to Seoul, Shanghai and Guangzhou, as well as Hong Kong indefinitely.

Lack of capacity and congestion

The state of war in Ukraine has also affected freight transport capacity, which had already fallen sharply during the pandemic due to growing demand for goods, and is now being further eroded. Why? One of the reasons is the aforementioned sanctions against Russia. As a result, Russian cargo planes have been suspended. One of the most significant losses is the banning of Russia’s largest cargo air operator, the Volga-Dnepr, in the West. The Volga-Dnepr operates a fleet of particularly large cargo ships with ramps that can accommodate unusual types of cargo, such as metro wagons, as well as large general cargo shipments. Its subsidiary AirBridgeCargo has 17 Boeing 747 jumbo jets and 777 other cargo aircraft that have been banned from operating in almost 30 countries since the sanctions were imposed. Such bans have had a significant impact on the capacity of cargo aircraft, which is also contributing to the rise in air freight rates.

Congestion at borders and ports

Sanctions against Russia are also not helping the already growing congestion at the border and in major ports. As a result, all shipments of goods entering and leaving the country are subject to special scrutiny at the border to ensure that all sanctions imposed on the country are complied with. This, in turn, indirectly affects an already disrupted supply chain, creating congestion and making it even slower than before.

The air and land transport sectors are not the only ones indirectly affected by the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also damaging world shipping, which accounts for 80% of world trade. Many Russian ships are currently stranded in the world’s oceans and seas, unable to deliver and receive cargo because they are barred from calling at ports in the Americas, England, Canada and many European countries. In addition, the crew on board has to deal with the reluctance of foreign seafarers to help in the event of a shortage of petrol. In recent weeks, the media has repeatedly published videos showing footage of the Russian ship’s crew crying for help, which has been unsuccessful.

Security risk

The war in Ukraine has also increased the security risks for logistics and freight workers. Although most logistics companies have stopped delivering goods to Russia and Ukraine, including Maersk, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd, some 140 merchant ships from other countries are currently trapped in Ukrainian ports, risking being left without food or drinking water. There have been several reports in the media about the shooting of ships and the death of crew members. For example, on March 3, an Estonian-owned cargo ship with a crew of six, including two representatives of Russia and four representatives of Ukraine, sank off the port of Odessa. Three other merchant ships were sunk in the Black Sea; one of these attacks killed a Bangladeshi crew member. Undoubtedly, the security risk in the shipping industry is now higher than ever, and events are pushing up insurance prices, urging carriers to impose a ‘war risk surcharge’ and puts people in the shipping industry in fear for their lives.

All the above factors lead to the same conclusion: no matter how much we want to send Russian freight and logistics companies to hell because of their political position, we must understand that their absence from the market makes it difficult for the entire industry to function effectively. So let us hope for an early end to the war and a faster recovery of the industry, which will benefit everyone.

Author: Roland Peterson, logistics expert

Image: www.pexels.com

The post Security risks and rising costs: the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war on freight transport appeared first on Cargo News Today.

Below are four charts showing where a potential escalation of tensions could be felt across global markets:

Safe havens
Inflation at multi-decade highs and impending interest rate rises have made for a bad month for bond markets, but an outright Russia-Ukraine conflict could change that.

Two-year U.S. Treasury yields have seen the biggest monthly jump since 2016 and 10-year rates appeared headed for the key 2% level. In Germany, 10-year yields rose above 0% for the first time since 2019.

A major risk event usually sees investors rushing back to bonds, which represent the safest assets on planet and this time may not be different, even if a Russian invasion of Ukraine risks further fanning oil prices — and therefore inflation.

“Clearly if the Ukraine story was to go wrong there would be quite a significant bid for Treasuries, and this notion of the 10-year getting to 2% would be put on hold,” said Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research, Americas at ING.

Other safe-havens include gold, already at two-month peaks as well as the yen.

Grains and wheat
Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and add further fuel to food inflation at a time when its affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Four major exporters – Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania – ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions.

Ukraine is projected to be the world’s third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.

“Geopolitical risks have risen in recent months in the Black Sea region, which could influence wheat prices ahead,” said Dominic Schnider, strategist at UBS.

Natural gas and oil
Energy markets are likely to be hit if tensions turn into conflict. Europe relies on Russia for around 35% of its natural gas, mostly coming through pipelines which cross Belarus and Poland to Germany, Nord Stream 1 going directly to Germany, and others through Ukraine.

In 2020 volumes of gas from Russia to Europe fell after lockdowns suppressed demand and did not recover fully last year when consumption surged, helping to send prices to record highs.

As part of possible sanctions in the case Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany has said it could halt https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-signals-it-could-halt-gas-pipeline-if-russia-invades-ukraine-2022-01-18 the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia that was expected to increase gas imports to the bloc but also underlines Europe’s energy dependence on Moscow.

SEB commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said markets would see natural gas exports from Russia to Western Europe likely significantly reduced both through Ukraine and Belarus in the event of sanctions and gas prices revisit Q4 levels.

Oil markets could also be affected. JPMorgan said the tensions risked a “material spike” in oil prices and noted that a rise to $150 a barrel would reduce global GDP growth to just 0.9% annualized in the first half of the year, while more than doubling inflation to 7.2%.

Regional dollar bonds and currencies
Russian and Ukrainian assets will be at the forefront of any markets fallout from potential military action.

Both countries’ dollar bonds have underperformed their peers in recent months as investors trimmed exposure amid escalating tensions between Washington and its allies and Moscow.

Ukraine’s fixed income markets are chiefly the remit of emerging market investors, while Russia’s overall standing on capital markets has shrunk in recent years amid sanctions and geopolitical tensions, somewhat cushioning any threat of contagion through those channels.

However, Russia’s rouble and Ukraine’s hryvnia have also suffered, making them the worst performing currencies in the emerging markets universe so far this year.

Geopolitics on the Ukraine-Russian border presented “substantial uncertainties” to foreign currency markets, said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

“The events of late 2014 remind us of the liquidity gaps and U.S. dollar hoarding that led to a substantial drop in the rouble at that time,” said Turner.

(Reporting by Karin Strohecker, Sujata Rao, Nigel Hunt and Susanna Twidale; Writing by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alison Williams)

Source: www.marinelink.com

Image: www.pixabay.com

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