Produced volumes requiring transport key shuttle tanker markets Brazil, Canada, Norway, the U.K. and Russia are expected to rise to 3.3 billion barrels per year before the end of the decade, jumping 35% from 2.5 billion in 2021, according to a recent report from the Norwegian analyst group.

Apart from minor dips in total utilization across these countries in 2018 and 2021, shuttle tanker activity has increased year-on-year since 2013 and is set to grow further by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% between 2021 and 2030.

“There is a need for a new influx of shuttle tankers to meet the increasing demand and replace some of the ageing capacity that will be taken out of service,” said Oddmund Føre, senior vice president of energy service research with Rystad Energy. “Crude oil extraction will continue for many years to come and, given the robust economics and competitiveness of the offshore industry, new investments in offshore production are likely to continue building, ensuring a bright future lies ahead for the shuttle tanker industry.”

(Image: Rystad Energy)

Shuttle tankers, typically used in locations where subsea pipelines are unviable, are crucial for moving liquids from wells to refineries and terminals. The North Sea was once the pioneer region and largest market for shuttle tankers due to its harsh environmental conditions and fragmented field structure, but the concept has been exported to other offshore areas with great success. Brazil is now the largest market for shuttle tankers due to its ultra-deep-water oilfields and will account for more than half the shuttle market demand from 2026.

The surge in offshore production in Brazil has seen a significant rise in the utilization of shuttle tankers, with activity soaring by 55% from 695 million barrels for 2013 to 1.07 billion in 2021, according to Rystad, which forecasts a further 72% increase by the end of 2030 when total volumes handled by shuttle tankers in the country will hit 1.84 billion barrels.

Despite being surpassed by Brazil, Norway and the U.K. remain significant players in the shuttle tanker market. Norwegian shuttle tankers handled 763 million barrels in 2021, while counterparts in the U.K. handled 312 million. In comparison, Canadian shuttle tankers transported just 96 million barrels, and Russian shuttle tankers moved 213 million. However, the Russian market is set to experience steady declines over the next few years, falling by almost half to 122 million barrels by 2030.

Tracking the vessels
With nearly 100 vessels now in operation and a handful on order, the shuttle tanker market remains one of the smallest and most surveyable shipping market segments. Despite its small size, there are significant variations and differences across regional shuttle tanker markets. The North Sea and the Norwegian side of the Barents Sea have around 25 shuttle tankers in operation and comprise 25% of the global market. Although the North Sea market provides more diversification than other markets, Equinor and state-owned Petoro are responsible for over 35% of the volumes shuttled off oilfields.

The high standards and operational knowledge in the North Sea have helped other regions adopt the same infrastructure. Brazil is now the largest market with 40 vessels and three times the production of the North Sea. Unlike in the North Sea, however, Brazilian field operators have developed their form of regulation without authorities playing an active role. Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers (KNOT) and Altera Infrastructure are two of the main shuttle tanker owners operating in Brazil with decades of experience operating vessels in the North Sea, helping create continuity and efficient operations in Brazil’s deep waters. The Brazilian market is less diversified, with Petrobras handling 70% of offshore shuttle tanker production with vessels that are either chartered by the Brazilian state giant itself or international operators. While international companies must leave Brazil every 90th day to meet local content regulations, Petrobras can operate more efficiently with significantly more trips per vessel than its in
ternational competitors.

In Russia, the shuttle tanker market is the same size as the North Sea but is divided into the Arctic Russia and Far East Russia markets. The former is focused on shuttling from Arctic oilfields to Murmansk, with the latter shuttling crude and condensate from the Sakhalin fields to the Asian market. Due to the relatively light-weight class of Russian shuttle tankers and the fact that they are ice-classed, there tends to be a higher vessel intensity per barrel produced in the region than in other markets.

Looking ahead
Rystad expects the North Sea will be a crucial driver for increased activity as a new investment spree follows the Norwegian government’s tax regime, introduced in mid-2020, which is aimed at incentivizing sanctioning activity to be filed by the end of 2022. Brazil has also been vocal about its ambitions to become more energy independent, with many wells to be drilled by 2030. In addition, Rystad noted a growing number of international players are entering the stage in Brazil with their stake in crude oil production. This trend alone will drive shuttle tanker demand upward as the vessel intensity per barrel produced is higher than local leader Petrobras.

Source: www.marinelink.com

Image: www.pexels.com

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SIM is a technology with the potential to make a significant contribution to maritime decarbonization, writes Patrick Ryan, ABS
One of the biggest problems for shipowners seeking to understand how environmental regulation will impact the performance of their fleets in future is uncertainty. While the regulatory framework is in place, changes that tighten the requirements, or new regional rules have the potential to disrupt investment decisions.

Owners want to know their options, whether for regulatory compliance or conformance with voluntary market measures. And they also need to understand when new fuels or technologies will enable them to safely comply and keep their vessels competitive.

But whereas even a few years ago, the technology needed to make such judgements was incomplete or unreliable, vessel operators these days have much more information at their disposal. What they need is the means to turn data into decisions.

Understanding Simulation

Data’s value is sometimes likened to gold or is described as ‘the new oil’, but we should really think of data as potential energy. The tool that turns it into usable kinetic energy, so it can be put to work on the toughest challenges facing the industry is Simulation.

Simulation technology (SIM) is the application of multi-physics models, in sometimes quite simple form and is a technique already well-established in other industrial applications. It is used in automotive design to create greener vehicles and it offers the potential for new ways of working to advance innovation for cleaner vessels too.

For newbuildings, SIM-based energy efficiency evaluation supports optimization of the propulsion system, provides system level assessment of fuel consumption and supports life-cycle cost analysis as well as detailed design comparison and optimization of equipment parameters. For existing vessels, the service assists with evaluating the retrofitting options and operational changes to reduce fuel consumption and maintain compliance with regulations.

Simulation provides a faster, more efficient and more comprehensive way of performing the calculations necessary to understand EEXI and CII compliance requirements than a traditional spreadsheet-driven approach. SIM can be used to create a library of inputs that can be applied by sustainability professionals to build a complete analysis of vessel performance.

Realizing the Digital Twin

Simulation can also been seen as a means to ‘close the loop’ on the Digital Twin concept. Digital Twins hold out the potential to provide owners with a data-driven view of vessel performance but there is a need to extend the concept to decarbonization.

The data required can be sourced from both the EU/UK MRV and IMO DCS data collection programmes and create an emissions profile, using SIM to validate performance models and explore options for improvement.

The next stage could be to use SIM to tie this emissions data into real time voyage information, making it possible to predict emissions of future voyages and further expand the Digital Twin concept.

The results can be displayed as performance insights within the ABS My Digital FleetTM platform and users don’t have to get involved in the complex calculations behind the scenes since all the information is displayed via an intuitive interface. Variables can easily be introduced into performance models to build scenarios that can provide responsive solutions to changing regulations.

This includes real performance data on engine behaviour or the effectiveness of energy efficiency devices, making it possible to judge their downstream impact on emissions.

Putting it into Practice

ABS has launched a new service using SIM technologies to assess the impact of decarbonization technologies at the newbuilding design stage and for existing vessels. The SIM-based Energy Efficiency Evaluation Service will allow both planned and existing vessels to compare different design and operational options and evaluate the performance impact of adding new fuels and energy efficiency technologies.

As well as enabling ship owners and shipyards to make more informed decisions about their options, the service can support compliance with EEXI and CII regulations and conformance to voluntary market measures. The capability for benchmarking, feeding the SIM software with vessel information and different performance parameters can help owners to understand what changes are needed and when. The SIM tool has been incorporated in the already wide range of services ABS Sustainability Centres have launched to support shipowners in this field.

To provide wider access to the technology, ABS has opened a series of global simulation centres, in Singapore and Houston with another Athens to follow in January 2022, to bring SIM further into shipping. One of the first projects managed from Singapore will see ABS, Hudong–Zhonghua Shipbuilding and Wärtsilä use advanced multi-physics modelling and simulation to develop a flexible, future ready and modular concept for a future multi-fuel electric Liquefied Natural Gas carrier.

The joint development project will apply various decarbonization technologies and solutions to the vessel design and operation models to investigate its performance against the IMO’s Carbon Intensity Indicator CII up to at least 2050.

Source: www.marinelink.com

Image: www.pexels.com

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